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Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes-AMG Petronas) wins the 2026 Formula 1 Mexican Grand Prix (Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, November 1, 2026, confirmed by FIA or Formula1.com by November 2, 2026)
Probability
40%
Kimi Antonelli clinched the 2026 Drivers' Championship with his victory at the US GP in Austin (Oct 25, 2026). In Mexico City, however, he faces Max Verstappen, who has historically dominated the 2,240m-altitude circuit (wins 2022–2024). Bookmaker odds imply ~43% for Antonelli and ~43% for Verstappen as co-favorites (OLBG, post-US GP). Slight discount on Antonelli due to Verstappen's proven altitude dominance with Red Bull; Russell (~8%) and Norris (~8%) as long shots. Prediction just below market consensus for Antonelli.
Data basis for this prediction
- Buchmacherquoten F1 Mexiko GP 2026: Antonelli ~43 %, Verstappen ~43 % (OLBG aggregiert, Stand 25. Okt 2026)
- formulaonehistory.com / ESPN: Antonelli gewinnt COTA US GP 2026 (25. Okt 2026), WM-Titel gesichert
- GPFans: F1-Fahrerwertung 2026 — Antonelli >100 Pkt Vorsprung vor US-GP (Stand 24. Okt 2026)
- RacingNews365: F1-Kalender 2026, Rennen 20: Mexiko-Stadt, 1. Nov 2026, Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Nicht Kimi Antonelli, sondern Lando Norris (McLaren) gewann den Formel-1-Grand-Prix von Mexiko-Stadt 2026. Hamilton holte die Pole Position (erste Ferrari-Pole), Antonelli qualifizierte sich nur auf Platz 5. Norris gewann das Rennen vor Sainz und Bearman (ESPN, Sky Sports, formula1.com).