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Kimi Antonelli wins the 2026 Belgian Grand Prix at Spa on July 19 and extends his Formula 1 championship lead
Probability
36%
Antonelli leads the 2026 F1 drivers' championship after the British GP with 179 points ahead of Russell (154 pts, +25 points). At the British GP (July 5), he lost while leading due to a technical failure, finishing P16 — his lead over Russell shrank from ~40 to 25 points; Leclerc won for Ferrari. Antonelli will want to bounce back at Spa. Spa-Francorchamps traditionally suits Mercedes (fuel-efficient, long straights). Aggregate bookmaker odds: Antonelli ~2.60 (implies 38% win probability); Mercedes constructor ~1.61 (implies ~62% for a Mercedes win). Slight adjustment to 36% due to recent technical uncertainty.
Data basis for this prediction
- F1 Fahrermeisterschaft nach British GP (10.07.2026): Antonelli 179 Pts, Russell 154 Pts (formula1.com)
- Buchmacherquoten Belgian GP Spa: Antonelli ~2,60 (impliziert 38%), Mercedes-Konstruktor ~1,61 (aggregiert, Stand 11.07.2026)
- Belgian GP 2026: 17.–19. Juli 2026, Spa-Francorchamps, Rennstart So. 15:00 Uhr local (formula1.com)
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Antonelli gewann weder das Rennen (P16) noch führt er mehr die F1-WM an – Piastri übernahm die Führung. Quelle: GPBlog Fahrerstandings nach Belgien.