⚽ Sports · Next Week

Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck, BEL) wins the Green Jersey (points classification) at Tour de France 2026 (Paris, July 27, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 18. July 2026 · Predicted for 27. July 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

38%

Polymarket prices Philipsen's chance at the Green Jersey at ~34% (highest single probability in the field); bookmaker odds imply ~55% (2/1 favourite). Tim Merlier is considered the fastest pure sprinter (~29%) and Biniam Girmay the most versatile contender (~26%). Philipsen has the strongest lead-out with Mathieu van der Poel. The accumulated points cushion before the Champs-Élysées sprint is decisive — note: this prediction covers the overall points classification (Green Jersey), distinct from Stage 21 win (already tracked separately as an open prediction).

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: Philipsen Grünes Trikot TdF 2026 ~34 % (Stand ca. Juli 2026)
Racing Post: Philipsen 2/1 Favorit Punktewertung; Merlier 3/1; Girmay 4/1 (Stand Juli 2026)
Sporting Life: TdF 2026 Gesamtvorschau und Quoten (Stand Juli 2026)
Roadman Cycling: TdF 2026 Etappe 21 Analyse — Sprint-Favoriten (Stand Juli 2026)

Verdict: Miss

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Das Grüne Trikot der Tour de France 2026 gewann Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek), NICHT Jasper Philipsen. Quelle: domestiquecycling.com.

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