📈 Economy · Next Week

Japan's Ministry of Finance (MoF) buys JPY again in FX market between July 26–31, 2026 (direct currency intervention, confirmed by Reuters, Bloomberg, or Japan MoF)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 25. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. July 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

28%

USD/JPY stands at 163.83 on July 25 – a 40-year low. Japan intervened massively in April 2026 (¥11.73 trillion ≈ $73.4B) and possibly again on July 11 ($20.7B per Reuters), without lasting effect. MoF and BoJ officials have repeatedly warned against 'excessive volatility.' US Treasury urges further BoJ rate hikes. Another intervention this week is possible, but given intervention fatigue and no fresh MoF warning today: calibration 28%.

Data basis for this prediction

USD/JPY 25.07.2026: 163,83 (40-Jahres-Tief) (Wise / TradingEconomics)
Japan April 2026 Intervention: ¥11,73 Bio. ($73,4 Mrd.) (Japan Times, 02.05.2026)
Mögliche Juli-Intervention $20,7 Mrd. am 11.07.2026 (Investing.com, Juli 2026)
Lazard: 'Yen Intervention July 2026' (Lazard Asset Management, Juli 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

Die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. Japan (MoF/BoJ) kaufte am 30. Juli 2026 (Donnerstag, New-York-Session) JPY im Markt – Bloomberg errechnete anhand von BoJ-Kontendaten ein Volumen von ca. ¥8,45 Bio. (~$52,8 Mrd.), was möglicherweise die größte Ein-Tages-Intervention Japans aller Zeiten war. Der USD/JPY fiel dabei um bis zu 3,3 %. Am 31. Juli bestätigte das MoF die Intervention indirekt über sein Monthly-Release (Zeitraum 29. Juni – 29. Juli 2026) und deutete US-Unterstützung an. Die offizielle gemeinsame Bestätigung einer koordinierten US-japanischen Intervention (FRB New York kaufte für das US-Treasury ebenfalls Yen) erfolgte am 3. August 2026. Quellen: Bloomberg (31. Juli 2026), Nikkei Asia, MoF Monthly FEIO Release 20260731, CNBC/Al Jazeera (3. August 2026).

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