ISM Manufacturing PMI USA August 2026 above 53.0 points (release September 2, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 31. August 2026
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Predicted for 2. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The ISM Manufacturing PMI for July 2026 came in at 55.6 — the strongest reading in years (ISM, July 2026). Nearshoring investments and robust new orders support the sector. The S&P Global flash estimate for August is also expected above 50.5 (expansion) per open market outlook. Risks: ISM historically underperforms S&P Global; potential drag from high energy costs. Threshold of 53.0 points represents a moderate cooling from July's 55.6 but remains clearly expansionary. No market quote available.
Data basis for this prediction
- ISM Manufacturing PMI Juli 2026: 55,6 Punkte (ISM, ismworld.org, Juli 2026)
- S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI August 2026 Flash: über 50,5 Punkte (offene Markterwartung)
- ISM Manufacturing PMI historische Zeitreihe 2024–2026 (ISM / Bloomberg)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] ISM Manufacturing PMI August 2026 = 54,6 Punkte (veröffentlicht am 2. September 2026, Quelle: ISM Institute / PR Newswire / Textile World). 54,6 > 53,0.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.