ISM Manufacturing PMI August 2026 (released September 2, 2026): Reading above 53.0 points (expansion, confirmed by ISM Institute or Bloomberg)
Hit
β¦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 26. August 2026
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Predicted for 2. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI reached 55.6 in July 2026, its highest since May 2022 (June: 53.3). 15 of 18 industries reported expansion; the production sub-index stood at 58.5 and the employment sub-index (52.8) moved into expansion for the first time in 33 months. The positive trend is supported by reshoring investments and recovering capex budgets. Bloomberg consensus implies a reading near 54 for August per Reuters. The 53.0-point threshold is 2 points below the July print, providing a buffer against seasonal variation. The already-open companion prediction β ISM Services PMI August above 53.5 β confirms broadly based demand expansion in the US economy.
Data basis for this prediction
- ISM Manufacturing PMI Juli 2026: 55,6 Punkte (ISM Institute, PR Newswire, 1. August 2026)
- ISM Manufacturing PMI Juni 2026: 53,3 Punkte (ISM Institute, Bloomberg)
- Offene Vorhersage: US ISM Services PMI August 2026 ΓΌber 53,5 Punkte
- Reuters-Konsensumfrage ISM Manufacturing PMI August 2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] ISM Manufacturing PMI August 2026 = 54,6 Punkte (Quelle: ISM Institute / PR Newswire). 54,6 > 53,0.
π Economy
β¦ AI
The S&P 500 closed at 7,636.36 on 9 September 2026. Falling below 7,450 by month-end would require a 2.4% decline. Headwinds: Fed rate hike of 25bp on 16 September (CentralBank.Watch: 59% probability), August PPI above expectations (+5.4% YoY), Iran-Gulf risk premium. Stabilizing factors: hike largely priced in (Polymarket: 93% for zero 2026 cuts), Q2 earnings solid, no recession signals. Historically, a single 25bp September hike rarely causes a monthly decline above 2.5%.
π Economy
β¦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 β an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
π Economy
β¦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a Ο range of roughly Β±5.5% by month-end β the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.