📈 Economy · Next Week

ISM Manufacturing PMI August 2026 (2 September 2026): result of at least 54.0 points

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 28. August 2026 · Predicted for 2. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

66%

The ISM Manufacturing PMI surprised to the upside in July 2026 at 55.6 – the highest since May 2022, well above the 54.0 consensus. Polymarket traders price August predominantly: 28% for 55.0–55.9, 22% for 54.0–54.9, 14% for 56.0–56.9. Combined market probability for ≥54: ~70%. Countervailing signal: the S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI for August (leading indicator) printed at 53.2, below the 53.9 expectation, signalling mild cooling. Hence a moderate discount to the raw market price; 66% net.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket ISM Manufacturing PMI August 2026: 55,0–55,9 führend mit 28% (polymarket.com, 28. Aug 2026)
ISM Manufacturing PMI Juli 2026: 55,6 Punkte (ISM / PNC Economics, 1. Aug 2026)
S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI August 2026: 53,2 (unter Erwartung 53,9; S&P Global, Aug 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

[Vorzeitig entschieden] ISM Manufacturing PMI August 2026 = 54,6 Punkte (Quelle: ISM Institute / PR Newswire, veröffentlicht 2. September 2026). 54,6 > 54,0.

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