📈 Economy
· Next Year
India surpasses Japan by nominal GDP (USD) and becomes the world's third-largest economy in calendar year 2026 per IMF data (confirmed by IMF World Economic Outlook April 2027 or World Bank data by April 30, 2027)
Probability
58%
The IMF forecast in April 2025 that India would surpass Japan by nominal GDP in USD by 2026. India's GDP grows at approximately 6.5–7% p.a. (real), while Japan's yen weakness (USD/JPY ~145–150 in 2026) and nominal growth of approximately 1–2% p.a. are shrinking the gap. Estimates: India 2026 ~$4.3–4.5 trillion, Japan ~$4.1–4.3 trillion. Main risk: yen recovery via BoJ rate steps could temporarily increase Japan's USD GDP. Metaculus places this event by 2026 at approximately 65–70%. No specific Polymarket market.
Data basis for this prediction
- IWF World Economic Outlook April 2025: Indien überholt Japan nach BIP (USD) bis 2026 (IMF.org)
- Weltbank BIP-Schätzungen: Indien 2025 ~4,0 Bio. USD; Japan ~4,2 Bio. USD (Weltbank, 2025)
- USD/JPY Sept. 2026: ~145–150 (Reuters, Sept. 2026); beeinflusst Japans BIP in USD
- Metaculus: Indien drittgrößte Wirtschaft bis 2026 ~65–70 % (Metaculus, Stand 2025)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.