ICE NY Cocoa September 2026 (CCU26) still above USD 5,400 per tonne on July 18, 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 11. July 2026
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Predicted for 18. July 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
CCU26 is at USD 6,057/t on July 10, 2026. Threshold 5,400 implies −10.8% over a full trading week. El Niño supply risks (West Africa, 2026/27 crop −18%) and structurally thin global supply support prices. Counterweights: ICE inventory near 2-year high and elevated cumulative Côte d'Ivoire port deliveries (+21% YoY). The weekly buffer of −10.8% makes this more likely to hold than the Monday threshold. No Polymarket/Kalshi market available.
Data basis for this prediction
- ICE NY CCU26 Schlusskurs 10.07.2026: 6.057 USD/t (TradingEconomics)
- Elfenbeinküste kumul. Port-Lieferungen 2025/26: +21% YoY (Barchart 2026)
- ICE Kakao-Inventar: 3,15 Mio. Säcke (2-Jahres-Hoch, Barchart Juli 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🍾 Beverages
✦ AI
Oatly closed at USD 9.85 on July 10, 2026 (market cap USD 296M). The 52-week low is USD 8.01. Dropping below USD 9.00 would require a weekly decline exceeding 8.6%, unusual absent negative news. Q2 results are due July 22, 2026 (after the prediction date); analyst consensus: Buy, avg. target USD 15.33. Q1 2026 showed revenue of USD 228.3M (+16% YoY) and an improved net loss of USD 12.0M. No prediction market found.
🍾 Beverages
✦ AI
Nichols (Vimto brand owner, AIM-listed) traded at 958–972 pence in early July 2026. The 940p threshold is approximately 1.9–3.3% below the current price. H1 2026 results are due July 29, 2026 (after the prediction date); the positive H1 2025 track record (revenue +1.8% to £85.5M, Vimto RSV at record £129.1M) suggests no significant downward pressure. The 52-week low is 829p; the stock is illiquid and no major catalyst is known for the prediction week. No prediction market found.
🍾 Beverages
✦ AI
TWE traded at AUD 4.49–4.57 between July 4–8, 2026, after confirming its FY2026 underlying EBIT guidance of AUD 480–490M. Falling below AUD 4.40 would require a weekly decline of around 2–3%. Analysts (consensus: Buy, avg. target AUD 5.43, +12% upside) view positive depletions trends as a stabilization signal. Full FY2026 results (fiscal year ending June 30, 2026) will be published August 13, 2026. No prediction market found.