ICE London White Sugar No. 5 (August 2026 Future, SWQ26) trades above $482/t on July 12, 2026
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 11. July 2026
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Predicted for 12. July 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
ICE London White Sugar No. 5 (SWQ26, August 2026) closed at $478.60/t on July 9, 2026 (–2.00 vs prior day, source: Barchart/ChiniMandi). The threshold of $482/t represents a +0.7% move from the last close. The recent dip followed a short-term high of $480.60 on July 8. With elevated daily volatility and no clear negative catalyst for July 12, a recovery is possible but not certain. No Polymarket market for white sugar found.
Data basis for this prediction
- ICE London White Sugar SWQ26 Schluss 09.07.2026: 478,60 USD/t (Barchart.com)
- ChiniMandi Morning Market Update 10.07.2026: White Sugar rückläufig
- ICE White Sugar No. 5 Expiry-Kalender (ice.com)
- TradingEconomics Sugar Price Chart Juli 2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] SWQ26 notierte zuletzt (Freitag, 10. Juli 2026 – letzter Handelstag vor dem Stichtag-Sonntag) bei ca. 467 USD/Tonne. Von 482,90 (1. Juli) fiel der Kurs um ca. −15,70 Punkte (−3,28 %), womit die 482-USD-Schwelle deutlich unterschritten ist. Quellen: Barchart.com SWQ26-Daten, ChiniMandi Morning Market Updates 01.–02.07.2026.
🍾 Beverages
✦ AI
After the record of 322 million bottles (2021), Champagne shipments are in structural decline: ~319 million in 2022, ~299 million in 2023 (CIVC). Continued luxury weakness in China (export volume –27% YoY H1 2026), rising input costs, and saturated key markets (USA, France, UK) point to further contraction. At –5 to –7% p.a. decline (2022–2025 trend), 2026 volume would be approximately 262–271 million bottles — well below the 280 million threshold. No prediction market signal available. Confirmed via CIVC annual report or Reuters by January 31, 2027.
🍾 Beverages
✦ AI
Analyst consensus for Q3 2026: EPS 0.2998 USD (~0.30 USD) with revenue of 2.49 billion USD (MarketBeat / TradingView, as of October 2026). Monster Beverage has beaten EPS consensus in a majority of recent quarters and continues to benefit from international market expansion in the energy drink segment. No active Polymarket or Kalshi market found for this event; beat probability estimated at ~65% based on historical beat rate and current consensus positioning.
🍾 Beverages
✦ AI
ICE Arabica (KC December 2026) last closed at ~315–320 US cents/lb ($3.15–3.20), near the year high (which briefly touched ~$3.50 in autumn 2024). The decisive structural driver: ICE-certified arabica warehouse stocks have fallen to a 27-year low (lowest since 1999); near-term replenishment is unlikely as no major harvests are imminent. A strengthened Brazilian real (~R$5.04/USD) reduces Brazilian producers' willingness to sell. November–December is the seasonal peak consumption month (Christmas trade). An intraday print above $3.50 requires a ~9–11% rise from current levels — entirely within range for a market with historically high volatility (~25–30% annualised). No Polymarket/Kalshi market exists; probability is based on fundamental analysis and volatility profile.