ICE Arabica Coffee September 2026 (KCU26) closes above 325 USc/lb on July 12, 2026
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 11. July 2026
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Predicted for 12. July 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
KCU26 was trading at ~341 USc/lb on July 9/10 after the historic July 6 breakout (+16.2% in one session). The 325 USc threshold represents a ~4.7% pullback — unlikely without contradictory fundamental news. Supporting factors: Brazil's 2026/27 harvest is 8pp below the 5-year average (52% vs. 60%); ICE certified arabica inventories at a 2.25-year low (~373,000 bags); NOAA estimates 67% probability of Super El Niño threatening Sept/Oct flowering. No direct Polymarket/Kalshi quote available.
Data basis for this prediction
- comunicaffe.com/Barchart: KCU26 +16,2% am 06.07.2026, Arabica erstmals seit Jan. über 350 USc
- Barchart.com: Brazil harvest 52% complete vs. 5Y-avg 60% (Stand 01.07.2026)
- ICE/Yahoo Finance: Arabica-Inventar ~373.000 Säcke, 2,25-Jahrestief (Juli 2026)
- NOAA via Barchart: 67% Wahrscheinlichkeit Super-El-Niño – Blüterisiko Sept./Okt.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] ICE Arabica Kaffee September 2026 (KCU26) schloss am Donnerstag 9. Juli bei 330,55 US-Cent/Pfund (bestätigt via Barchart/Yahoo Finance) und fiel am Freitag 10. Juli um −3,92 % (−13,65 Cent) auf ca. 317 US-Cent – unter dem Schwellenwert von 325 Cent. Stichtag 12. Juli = Sonntag, maßgeblich ist der Freitagsschluss. Quellen: barchart.com KCU26, finance.yahoo.com arabica-coffee-prices.
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✦ AI
ICE Arabica (KC December 2026) last closed at ~315–320 US cents/lb ($3.15–3.20), near the year high (which briefly touched ~$3.50 in autumn 2024). The decisive structural driver: ICE-certified arabica warehouse stocks have fallen to a 27-year low (lowest since 1999); near-term replenishment is unlikely as no major harvests are imminent. A strengthened Brazilian real (~R$5.04/USD) reduces Brazilian producers' willingness to sell. November–December is the seasonal peak consumption month (Christmas trade). An intraday print above $3.50 requires a ~9–11% rise from current levels — entirely within range for a market with historically high volatility (~25–30% annualised). No Polymarket/Kalshi market exists; probability is based on fundamental analysis and volatility profile.