ICE Arabica Coffee September 2026 (KCU26) closes above 325 USc/lb on July 12, 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 11. July 2026
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Predicted for 12. July 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
KCU26 was trading at ~341 USc/lb on July 9/10 after the historic July 6 breakout (+16.2% in one session). The 325 USc threshold represents a ~4.7% pullback — unlikely without contradictory fundamental news. Supporting factors: Brazil's 2026/27 harvest is 8pp below the 5-year average (52% vs. 60%); ICE certified arabica inventories at a 2.25-year low (~373,000 bags); NOAA estimates 67% probability of Super El Niño threatening Sept/Oct flowering. No direct Polymarket/Kalshi quote available.
Data basis for this prediction
- comunicaffe.com/Barchart: KCU26 +16,2% am 06.07.2026, Arabica erstmals seit Jan. über 350 USc
- Barchart.com: Brazil harvest 52% complete vs. 5Y-avg 60% (Stand 01.07.2026)
- ICE/Yahoo Finance: Arabica-Inventar ~373.000 Säcke, 2,25-Jahrestief (Juli 2026)
- NOAA via Barchart: 67% Wahrscheinlichkeit Super-El-Niño – Blüterisiko Sept./Okt.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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