ICE Arabica Coffee September 2026 (KCU26) trades above 320 US cents per pound on July 18, 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 12. July 2026
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Predicted for 18. July 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
KCU26 was at 334.25 USc/lb on July 11 (barchart.com), following the +16.19% spike to ~350 USc on July 6 and subsequent declines of -9.24% on July 7 (post ICE margin increase) and -3.92% on July 10. A further decline below 320 USc would require -4.3% from current levels. Structural support: Brazil's 2026/27 coffee harvest is only 52% complete (vs. 60% last year, as of July 1, 2026, Conab/barchart), with rain risks during the drying phase remaining. The existing open prediction 'KCU26 > 300 USc on July 31' uses a lower threshold; this 320 USc weekly market is distinct and more tightly calibrated.
Data basis for this prediction
- KCU26 Schlusskurs 11.07.2026: 334,25 USc/lb (barchart.com)
- +16,19% Spike 06.07.2026, dann -9,24% am 07.07.2026 (barchart.com)
- Brasiliens Kaffeeernte 2026/27: 52% abgeschlossen vs. 60% Vorjahr (Conab/barchart, 01.07.2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🍾 Beverages
✦ AI
AB InBev started 2026 strongly: Q1 2026 total revenues USD 15.267bn (+12% YoY, SEC Form 6-K, 05.05.2026), with volume up 1.2% and price/mix driving the rest; organic growth estimated at ~5–6%. Analyst full-year consensus: ~4.5% organic growth. H1 >4.0% organic appears achievable, particularly as AB InBev benefits from premiumization in emerging markets (Mexico, Brazil, Colombia) and China normalization. The 4.0% threshold is well below the estimated Q1 level, providing a buffer for a potential Q2 slowdown.
🍾 Beverages
✦ AI
Diageo issued full-year guidance of –2% to –3% organic net sales for FY2026. Through nine months (to March 2026), organic sales were –1.9%, with North America (38% of group sales) down –9.4% and US spirits collapsing –15.4%. Q4 FY26 (April–June 2026) received FIFA World Cup tailwinds in certain regions but likely insufficient for a full recovery. A full-year result exceeding –2.5% sits in the lower third of its own guidance range. The company already cut its dividend. The –2.5% threshold represents roughly a 50/50 split within the guided range (–2% to –3%).
🍾 Beverages
✦ AI
Pernod Ricard (FY ending June 30, 2026) labeled FY2026 a 'transition year' and guided to -3% to -4% organic net sales decline. H1 FY26 (July–Dec 2025) was heavily negative – China at -21% organic. Q3 FY26 (Jan–Mar 2026) recovered to +4.1%, insufficient to pull the full-year above -2%. S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on Pernod Ricard. No Polymarket/Kalshi market. FY2026 annual results published October 16, 2026 at 9:00 AM CEST (MarketScreener). Residual risk: unexpectedly strong Q4 (April–June 2026) might limit the decline to just below -2%.