📈 Economy · Next Week

Gold (XAU/USD Spot) closes above USD 4,100 per troy ounce on 31 July 2026 (confirmed by Bloomberg or Kitco closing price)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 25. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. July 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

48%

Gold traded at USD 4,045.80 on 24 July 2026 (Vantage Markets). A ~1.4% rise is needed to reach 4,100. Drivers: (1) US-Iran war ongoing – no ceasefire in sight (GlobalSecurity.org, 24 July); (2) FOMC holds rates unchanged (29 July, platform forecast), supportive for gold; (3) US 10Y yield at 4.69% with easing bias. Counter-argument: the Iran-US MOU of 17 June reopened the Strait of Hormuz – partial risk premium compression; USD mildly recovered on strong US data. No Polymarket quote for this gold price level.

Data basis for this prediction

Vantage Markets: XAU/USD Spot $4.045,80, 24. Juli 2026
Trading Economics: US 10Y Treasury Yield 4,69%, 24. Juli 2026
GlobalSecurity.org: Iran War Day 147 Update – keine Waffenruhe, 24. Juli 2026

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

Gold (XAU/USD) schloss am 31. Juli 2026 bei ca. 4.042–4.047 USD je Feinunze und damit deutlich unter der Schwelle von 4.100 USD. Intraday wurde die Marke kurz überschritten (Tageshoch ~4.116 USD laut Investing.com, Eröffnung ~4.105 USD), doch der Markt drehte im Tagesverlauf um −1,48 % nach unten. Quellen: Investing.com (XAU/USD Historical Data, OHLC für 31.07.2026: C=4.042,67), Twelvedata.com (C=4.045,30), mygoldcalc.com (C=4.046,84). Die Vorhersage war an einen Schlusskurs geknüpft – dieser lag rund 57 USD unterhalb der Bedingung.

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