📈 Economy · Next Month

Gold (XAU/USD Spot) closes above $4,100/troy oz on July 31, 2026

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 20. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. July 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

35%

Gold was at ~$4,001 on July 20, 2026, 'defending $4,000 amid oil surge and Fed uncertainty' (FX Leaders). An existing prediction expects a short-term dip below $3,950 on July 22. For July 31: the Iran war structurally sustains safe-haven demand; a Fed on hold at 3.50–3.75% (existing open prediction) and a potentially weaker USD support gold. $4,100 requires ~+2.5% from current levels – ambitious but consistent with recent volatility. No specific gold Polymarket market found.

Data basis for this prediction

FX Leaders: 'Gold Defends $4,000 as Oil Surge and Fed Bets Trigger Tug-of-War', 20.07.2026
LiteFinance: XAU/USD ca. $4.001 am 20.07.2026
IEA Oil Market Report Juli 2026: Iran-Krieg – strukturelle Safe-Haven-Nachfrage
FRED/CNBC: Fed-Leitzins 3,50–3,75 % (effektiv 3,62 %, Stand 9.07.2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

Gold (XAU/USD Spot) schloss am 31. Juli 2026 bei ca. 4.042,67 USD/oz – deutlich unter der Schwelle von 4.100 USD. Laut Investing.com (historische Daten) betrug die Tagesbandbreite 4.020,82–4.116,30 USD bei einem Eröffnungskurs von 4.104,80 USD; das entspricht einem Rückgang von −1,48 %. Zwar brach Gold intraday kurzzeitig über 4.100 USD (Yahoo Finance: 'finally breaks above $4,100 as U.S. paused airstrikes overnight', Hoch 4.116,30 USD um 8:22 Uhr ET), konnte diese Gewinne aber nicht halten. Der Einbruch zurück unter 4.050 USD erfolgte im Verlauf der US-Handelssitzung. Die Vorhersage scheiterte, weil der durch die Iran-Feuerpause ausgelöste Overnight-Anstieg intraday vollständig zurückgegeben wurde – klassisches 'buy the rumor, sell the news'.

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