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📈 Economy · Next Week

General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) beats Q2-2026 adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus of ~$2.80 per share (July 22, 2026, before market open)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 20. July 2026 · Predicted for 22. July 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern
Probability
70%

GM has beaten EPS consensus in five of the last six quarters, delivering ~$3.08 per share in Q1 2026, well above expectations. Tariff-driven US production shifts support margins; North American truck business remains strong. No Polymarket market for this event; the historical S&P 500 EPS beat rate was 76% in Q1 2026 per FactSet. The ~$2.80 consensus looks conservative.

Data basis for this prediction
  • GM Q1 2026 Earnings Release: bereinigtes Non-GAAP-EPS $3,08 (April 2026)
  • Seeking Alpha Earnings Calendar: GM Q2 2026 erwartet 22. Juli 2026 (Stand 20.07.2026)
  • FactSet Earnings Insight: S&P-500-EPS-Beat-Rate Q1 2026 bei 76 % (Juni 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit
GM berichtete am 22. Juli 2026 (vor Marktöffnung) ein bereinigtes Non-GAAP-EPS von 3,57 USD für Q2 2026 und übertraf damit den Wall-Street-Konsens von ca. 3,13–3,20 USD deutlich. Umsatz: 48,03 Mrd. USD (Konsens: ~46,6 Mrd. USD). GM hob zudem die Jahresprognose auf 12–14 USD adj. EPS an. Die Vorhersage trat ein – GM schlug den Konsens klar. Hinweis: Der in der Vorhersage genannte Konsens von ~2,80 USD war zum Zeitpunkt der Meldung bereits veraltet; der tatsächliche Konsens lag bei ~3,13–3,20 USD, wurde aber ebenfalls übertroffen. Quellen: LiveSquawk/X (3,57 USD EPS), Yahoo Finance 'GM's 16th Straight Earnings Beat', TechTimes 'GM Beats Q2 Forecasts'.
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The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.

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US Federal Reserve raises the Federal Funds target range by 25 basis points on 16 September 2026 (FOMC decision)

Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.

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Bitcoin (BTC/USD spot) closes above $100,000 per unit on December 31, 2026 (confirmed by Bloomberg or CoinGecko by December 31, 2026)

Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.

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