France's Lecornu government invokes Article 49.3 of the Constitution to pass the 2027 budget draft (PLF 2027) (by October 31, 2026, confirmed by Assemblée nationale or Reuters by November 1, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 25. September 2026
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Predicted for 31. October 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
PM Lecornu leads a fragile minority coalition. France's 10-year OAT yield exceeded 4.5% in September 2026 for the first time since 2008 (CNBC, Sept 24, 2026). France already used Article 49.3 to pass the 2024 and 2025 budgets after two predecessor governments fell. The PLF 2027 is typically introduced in late September/early October; the NFP-RN opposition majority has signaled it would reject the draft. Without a constructive majority, 49.3 is the only constitutional tool for passage. No direct prediction market; historical repeat-usage rate supports 58%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Frankreich: OAT-10J >4,5%, neue Haushaltskrise unter Lecornu (CNBC, 24.09.2026)
- Zwei Regierungsstürze 2024–2025, 49.3-Einsatz für Haushalt 2025 (SFG Media / Al Jazeera, 2026)
- Lecornu-Minderheitsregierung, NFP+RN-Opposition signalisiert Ablehnung (SFG Media, Sep 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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