⚽ Sports · Next Week

France Wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup (Final at MetLife Stadium, July 19, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 13. July 2026 · Predicted for 19. July 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

37%

Polymarket gives France a 38.9% probability to win the title (Kalshi: 39.5%), ahead of England (21.6%), Spain (20.8%), and Argentina (18.0%). Trading volume on Polymarket: $3.7 billion. France beat Morocco 2-0 in the quarterfinals and has the nominally strongest attack with Mbappé, Griezmann, and Camavinga. An existing open prediction also sees France beating Spain in the semifinal (July 14) — this forecast aggregates total tournament probability across both remaining matches. The 37% probability closely tracks the market anchor.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: Frankreich 38,9 % WM-Sieger (DeFiRate, Stand 13. Juli 2026)
Kalshi: Frankreich 39,5 % (Stand 13. Juli 2026)
Polymarket-Handelsvolumen WM 2026: 3,7 Mrd. USD (Stand 13. Juli 2026)
Viertelfinale: Frankreich 2:0 Marokko; Halbfinalisten: FR, ESP, ENG, ARG (Al Jazeera/CBS Sports)

Verdict: Miss

Frankreich gewann die FIFA WM 2026 nicht. Im Finale am 19. Juli 2026 im MetLife Stadium siegte Spanien gegen Argentinien 1:0 nach Verlängerung (Tor: Ferran Torres, 106. Minute). Frankreich schied vor dem Finale aus – trotz der hohen Marktwahrscheinlichkeiten auf Polymarket/Kalshi. Quellen: Wikipedia (2026 FIFA World Cup final), worldcuppass.com, kicker.de, de.wikipedia.org.

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