France Wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup (Final at MetLife Stadium, July 19, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 13. July 2026
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Predicted for 19. July 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Polymarket gives France a 38.9% probability to win the title (Kalshi: 39.5%), ahead of England (21.6%), Spain (20.8%), and Argentina (18.0%). Trading volume on Polymarket: $3.7 billion. France beat Morocco 2-0 in the quarterfinals and has the nominally strongest attack with Mbappé, Griezmann, and Camavinga. An existing open prediction also sees France beating Spain in the semifinal (July 14) — this forecast aggregates total tournament probability across both remaining matches. The 37% probability closely tracks the market anchor.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Frankreich 38,9 % WM-Sieger (DeFiRate, Stand 13. Juli 2026)
- Kalshi: Frankreich 39,5 % (Stand 13. Juli 2026)
- Polymarket-Handelsvolumen WM 2026: 3,7 Mrd. USD (Stand 13. Juli 2026)
- Viertelfinale: Frankreich 2:0 Marokko; Halbfinalisten: FR, ESP, ENG, ARG (Al Jazeera/CBS Sports)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
⚽ Sports
✦ AI
Evenepoel sits 4th in the GC after Stage 9 (rest day July 13), 3:30 behind Pogačar. As reigning World ITT Champion, Stage 16's individual time trial (Évian–Thonon-les-Bains, 26.1 km, July 21) offers him significant potential to recover time or even move to 2nd (an existing open prediction sees him winning that stage). His current deficits to Vingegaard (2nd, +2:42) and del Toro (3rd, +3:27) are non-trivial to overcome in the remaining Alpine stages (14, 15, 18, 19), where he is relatively weaker in high-altitude summit finishes. Risk: losing more than 1 minute to current 5th/6th-placed riders in the remaining mountain stages.
⚽ Sports
✦ AI
The third-place match is scheduled for July 18 at Miami Stadium (worldcupwiki.com). Most likely pairing: Spain vs England (if France and Argentina win the semis; Polymarket implies France at ~40% WC winner as of ~July 9, 2026). Historically, third-place matches are high-scoring: of 20 such WC matches since 1986, only 2–3 ended with fewer than 2 goals (~85% had ≥2). Both sides play more openly without relegation pressure. Bookmaker odds imply >75% for ≥2 goals. No direct Polymarket equivalent for goal count in third-place match.
⚽ Sports
✦ AI
Rory McIlroy is the second-biggest favourite for the 2026 Claret Jug at bookmaker odds of +850 (~10% win probability) (covers.com / cbssports.com, July 13, 2026). A top-5 finish for a top favourite typically carries 2.5–3× the win probability, implying ~25–35%. McIlroy has played Royal Birkdale on multiple occasions, excels on links courses, and benefits from home crowd support as a Northern Irishman. Scottie Scheffler remains the leader at +550–+750 (~16–25%). No Polymarket market for top-5 finish; estimate based on aggregated bookmaker odds.