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France defeats Spain in FIFA World Cup 2026 semi-final (July 14, 2026, AT&T Stadium Dallas) and advances to the final

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 13. July 2026 · Predicted for 14. July 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

65%

France enters the semi-final as the clear favorite. Polymarket prices France's overall WC win probability at 39%, Spain at 20%, implying approximately 65% for France in this specific match. Aggregated bookmaker odds confirm this range. France has been the tournament's dominant force, eliminating Morocco comfortably and fielding full-strength Mbappé, Dembélé and Griezmann. Only mitigating factor: Spain eliminated France in the Euro 2024 semi-final – a psychological edge that slightly depresses the odds.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: Frankreich 39%, Spanien 20% WC-Sieger (Stand 13.07.2026)
Fox Sports: France -148, Spain +120 WC-Winner-Quoten (13.07.2026)
launchpoly.com: WM-2026-Halbfinal-Odds Polymarket (13.07.2026)

Verdict: Miss

Spanien besiegte Frankreich 2:0 im Halbfinale am 14. Juli 2026 im AT&T Stadium Dallas und zog ins Finale ein – genau das Gegenteil der Vorhersage. Laut ESPN, FIFA.com und NPR erzielte Mikel Oyarzabal (Elfmeter nach Foul an Yamal) das 1:0 und Pedro Porro das 2:0 in der 58. Minute. Frankreich war trotz statistischer Favoritenrolle (Polymarket 39% WM-Siegchance vs. Spaniens 20%) chancenlos. Der psychologische Faktor aus dem EM-2024-Halbfinale (Spanien schlug Frankreich) erwies sich als relevanter Indikator als die Buchmacherquoten. Quellen: espn.com, fifa.com, nbcnews.com, npr.org (alle 14.07.2026)

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