⚽ Sports · Next Year

Formula 1 World Drivers' Championship 2026: Kimi Antonelli (ITA, Mercedes-AMG F1) wins the title (final race approx. Abu Dhabi GP, 22 November 2026, confirmed by FIA by 23 November 2026)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 12. September 2026 · Predicted for 22. November 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

85%

Polymarket gives Antonelli (as of 12 Sep 2026, ~$203M volume) an 85% probability for the 2026 drivers' title. He leads the standings with 267 points, 66 clear of teammate George Russell (201) and 76 ahead of Lewis Hamilton (191). With 10 races remaining (maximum 258 points available), Russell would need to outscore Antonelli by ~6.7 points per race on average — statistically very unlikely. The open forecast (McLaren wins constructors) is compatible: McLaren's two-driver synergy (Norris + Piastri) can accumulate more team points while Antonelli dominates individually. Polymarket: 85%.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion – Antonelli 85 %, Russell 5 %, Norris 3 % (Stand 12.09.2026, ~203 Mio. USD)
Formula1.com: 2026 Drivers' Standings – Antonelli 267 Pts, Russell 201, Hamilton 191 (Stand 12.09.2026)
Motorsport.com: F1 Spanish GP 2026 – Antonelli qualifies P2, Norris on pole (Abstand 0,011 s) (12.09.2026)

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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