📈 Economy
· Next Week
FOMC Meeting July 29, 2026: Fed Holds Benchmark Rate Unchanged at 3.50–3.75%
Probability
85%
The US policy rate stands at 3.50–3.75% (effective 3.63%) as of July 22, 2026. CME FedWatch on July 21 showed 83.4% probability of no change at the July 29 FOMC — down from an early-July spike of 37.4% hike probability that faded as inflation expectations eased. Fed rhetoric signals 'higher for longer' while Core PCE stays above 3%. Neither a cut (premature given inflation) nor a hike (politically charged in a midterm year) is likely.
Data basis for this prediction
- CME FedWatch: 83,4 % Hold-Wahrscheinlichkeit FOMC 29. Juli 2026 (Stand 21. Juli 2026)
- Federal Reserve H.15: Effektiver Fed Funds Rate 3,63 % (22. Juli 2026)
- CryptoRank: CME FedWatch FOMC Hold-Wahrscheinlichkeit Juli 2026 (Stand 21. Juli 2026)
- GoldSilver.com: FOMC July 2026 Countdown-Analyse – Hold-Szenario dominant
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die Vorhersage trat exakt ein: Das FOMC votierte am 29. Juli 2026 mit 9:3 Stimmen dafür, den Leitzins unverändert bei 3,50–3,75 % zu belassen – bereits das fünfte Meeting in Folge ohne Änderung. Drei Fed-Präsidenten (Hammack/Cleveland, Kashkari/Minneapolis, Logan/Dallas) dissentierten und hätten eine Erhöhung um 25 Bp bevorzugt, setzten sich aber nicht durch. Quellen: federalreserve.gov (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm), CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-rate-decision-july-2026.html), Fox Business (https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-july-29-2026).