FOMC keeps federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75% on July 29, 2026
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 18. July 2026
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Predicted for 29. July 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
Kalshi prices a 93% hold probability for the July 29 FOMC meeting; fewer than 5% price in a hike. After a surprising cutting cycle that brought the rate from 4.25–4.50% down to 3.50–3.75% by early July 2026, the Committee is in wait-and-see mode: trade-war inflation and a still-robust labour market block further cuts, while recessionary tariff risk makes hikes unlikely. Historical note: the prior open prediction targeting a hold at 4.25–4.50% was a miss precisely because the rate had already fallen to the current 3.50–3.75% level — which this prediction now correctly targets.
Data basis for this prediction
- Kalshi FOMC Juli 2026: 93 % Hold-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Stand 18.07.2026)
- CNBC: Aktuelle Fed-Rate 3,50–3,75 % (effektiv 3,62 %), Stand 09.07.2026
- PredictionMarketsPicks Fed Rate Tracker (Stand 18.07.2026)
- CNBC/Kalshi: ~50 % Chance auf Zinserhöhung irgendwann 2026 (09.07.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. Der FOMC hat am 29. Juli 2026 mit 9:3 Stimmen beschlossen, den Leitzins unverändert bei 3,50–3,75 % zu belassen – exakt die vorhergesagte Bandbreite. Es war bereits die fünfte Sitzung in Folge ohne Änderung. Die drei Gegenstimmen (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) plädierten für eine Anhebung um 25 Basispunkte, setzten sich aber nicht durch. Quellen: Federal Reserve Pressemitteilung (federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm) und CNBC (cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-rate-decision-july-2026.html).
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Cisco has beaten Non-GAAP EPS consensus in 7 of its last 8 quarters. For Q1 FY2027 (August–October 2026) the company itself guided $1.32–$1.34 per share — the market consensus of $1.32 sits at the bottom of this self-guided range, which historically signals a beat for Cisco (Q4 FY2026: $1.22 vs. consensus $1.17). AI-networking growth, Splunk integration synergies, and record Q4 FY2026 revenue ($17.25B) confirm the structural growth momentum. Q1 FY2027 revenue consensus: $18.11B (within guidance range $18.0–18.2B).