FOMC keeps federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75% on July 29, 2026
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 18. July 2026
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Predicted for 29. July 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
Kalshi prices a 93% hold probability for the July 29 FOMC meeting; fewer than 5% price in a hike. After a surprising cutting cycle that brought the rate from 4.25–4.50% down to 3.50–3.75% by early July 2026, the Committee is in wait-and-see mode: trade-war inflation and a still-robust labour market block further cuts, while recessionary tariff risk makes hikes unlikely. Historical note: the prior open prediction targeting a hold at 4.25–4.50% was a miss precisely because the rate had already fallen to the current 3.50–3.75% level — which this prediction now correctly targets.
Data basis for this prediction
- Kalshi FOMC Juli 2026: 93 % Hold-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Stand 18.07.2026)
- CNBC: Aktuelle Fed-Rate 3,50–3,75 % (effektiv 3,62 %), Stand 09.07.2026
- PredictionMarketsPicks Fed Rate Tracker (Stand 18.07.2026)
- CNBC/Kalshi: ~50 % Chance auf Zinserhöhung irgendwann 2026 (09.07.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. Der FOMC hat am 29. Juli 2026 mit 9:3 Stimmen beschlossen, den Leitzins unverändert bei 3,50–3,75 % zu belassen – exakt die vorhergesagte Bandbreite. Es war bereits die fünfte Sitzung in Folge ohne Änderung. Die drei Gegenstimmen (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) plädierten für eine Anhebung um 25 Basispunkte, setzten sich aber nicht durch. Quellen: Federal Reserve Pressemitteilung (federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm) und CNBC (cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-rate-decision-july-2026.html).
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.