FOMC September 17, 2026: Federal Reserve leaves policy rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75%
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 4. September 2026
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Predicted for 17. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Polymarket shows ~57% for unchanged rate, Kalshi ~70% — no market prices a cut (<1%). The July 2026 FOMC ended with a 9-3 vote to pause; Fed Chair Warsh signalled caution at Jackson Hole without pre-committing to a hike. Mixed inflation (core CPI 2.6% above target, energy-driven headline elevated by oil) makes a pause the most likely outcome. Own estimate: 62%, slightly above Polymarket, slightly below Kalshi.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket FOMC September 2026: ~57% Hold, ~43% Hike (Stand 4. September, OddsShopper / Polycopy)
- Kalshi FOMC September 2026: ~70% Hold, ~28% Hike (Stand 4. September, DeFiRate)
- FOMC Juli 2026: Fed Funds bei 3,50–3,75% gehalten, 9:3-Abstimmung (Federal Reserve / Cambridge Currencies)
- Warsh Jackson Hole 2026: Hawkische Rhetorik; Kern-CPI 2,6% (Forbes Fed Tracker 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] FOMC-Entscheid September 2026 war eine Anhebung (nicht Beibehaltung bei 3,50–3,75 %). Tatsächliche Entscheidung am 16.09.2026 gefallen; Deadline 17.09 noch offen, aber bereits endgültig entschieden. Quelle: CNBC, 16.09.2026.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.