FOMC September 16, 2026: Federal Reserve raises the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% (confirmed by Fed statement or Bloomberg by September 16, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 14. September 2026
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Predicted for 16. September 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
Current target range is 3.50–3.75%. Polymarket shows 80% probability of a hike; Kalshi 59% — blended estimate ~70%. August core CPI +0.3% m/m; 162K payrolls; 4.1% unemployment. Chair Warsh hawkish at Jackson Hole; three July dissenters already voted for a hike. Goldman Sachs sees a hike as 'very unlikely'; JPMorgan expects one. Consistent with the open November FOMC prediction presupposing 3.75–4.00%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: 80 % Hike-Wahrscheinlichkeit September 2026 (Stand 14.09.2026)
- Kalshi: 59 % Hike-Wahrscheinlichkeit September 2026 (Stand 14.09.2026)
- August Core CPI +0,3 % m/m, BLS-Veröffentlichung 10.09.2026
- FOMC-Protokoll Juli 2026: drei Dissenter pro Zinserhöhung (Fed.gov / ATFX Capital)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Fed hob am 16. September 2026 einstimmig um 25 Bps auf 3,75–4,00 % an. Bestätigt durch CNBC: 'Fed rate decision September 2026: Rates rise to 3.75%-4%' (cnbc.com, 16.09.2026).
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.