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Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe, GER) finishes Tour de France 2026 5th overall or better (Paris, July 27, 2026)
Probability
38%
Lipowitz sits 6th overall after Stage 13, trailing leader Pogačar by +4:44. Paul Seixas (Decathlon CMA CGM, FRA) holds 5th at +4:35 — only 9 seconds separate them. Remaining Stages 14–20 include four high-alpine summit finishes: Plateau de Solaison (Stage 15), Orcières-Merlette (Stage 18), and two Alpe d'Huez finishes (Stages 19 and 20, historically among TdF's hardest climbs), where time gaps of several minutes are plausible. Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe has a strong mountain train around Evenepoel (3rd overall, +4:06). Seixas may defend on GC as a home rider but could also lose time. This prediction is consistent with the existing open prediction that Seixas 'finishes top 6.'
Data basis for this prediction
- Cyclingnews (Stand 18. Juli 2026): Tour de France 2026 GC standings — Lipowitz 6. Platz +4:44
- intervals.icu (Stand 18. Juli 2026): Tour de France 2026 Standings nach Etappe 13
- cyclinguptodate.com (Stand 18. Juli 2026): Seixas 5. Platz +4:35 nach Etappe 13
- olympics.com: TdF 2026 — vollständige Etappenergebnisse und Gesamtklassement-Tabelle
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Florian Lipowitz beendete die Tour nicht in den Top 5 – er stürzte auf Etappe 16 (Zeitfahren), brach sich das Schlüsselbein und gab auf (velo.outsideonline.com)