Federal Reserve holds the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.75–4.00% at the October 28–29, 2026 FOMC meeting (pause following September hike, confirmed via Fed press release or Bloomberg by October 29, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 16. September 2026
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Predicted for 29. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The Fed raised its rate by 25 bp to 3.75–4.00% on September 16, 2026 – its first hike since 2023 (Fed press release). Major banks per FedRateCalc/Cambridge Currencies forecast only two hikes in 2026: September and December. Polymarket's 'Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?' at 92% is a cumulative question ('at least one hike by October'), effectively already resolved by the September hike. For the isolated October FOMC decision, market consensus is for a pause: after an initial rate hike the Fed typically pauses at least one meeting to assess its impact. Brent (~$109) and TTF (~€81/MWh) keep inflation pressure elevated but support a December rather than October adjustment.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket / Polycopy.app: 'Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?' – 92 % kumulativ (de facto durch Sept.-Hike eingelöst, Stand 16. Sept. 2026)
- FedRateCalc.com / CambridgeCurrencies: Großbank-Konsens – Zinserhöhungen nur in September und Dezember 2026
- Fed-Pressemitteilung: +25 bp Erhöhung auf 3,75–4,00 % (16. Sept. 2026)
- Trading Economics: Brent 109,21 USD/Barrel, TTF 81,69 EUR/MWh (Sept. 2026) – Inflationsdruck erhöht, Dezember-Schritt plausibler
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The Nasdaq 100 closed at approximately 29,441 on FOMC decision day (September 16, 2026), well above the now-rejected 28,500 threshold. The Fed raised rates 25 bps to 3.75–4.00% as fully expected; S&P 500 and NDX held on decision day (+0.2%). Post-FOMC, tech indices historically drift slightly positive when the hike is fully priced in. Headwind comes from the surprisingly weak August retail sales (−0.6% MoM). The 29,500 threshold is only +0.2% above today's close, so even a flat session suffices. No direct Polymarket anchor available; calibrated via historical post-FOMC patterns.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Brent rose to ~$109.21/bbl on September 15, 2026 (+3.34% day-on-day) due to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and Middle East supply disruptions (~20% of global LNG flows blocked; Saudi oil exports via the Red Sea disrupted – Trading Economics). The Fed's September 16 rate hike (+25 bp to 3.75–4.00%) temporarily strengthens the USD and normally pressures crude; however, a drop from $109.21 to below $108.50 (< –0.65%) in one day appears unlikely given dominant supply-side tensions. No Polymarket market found for this specific date; the open platform prediction (Brent > $109 on Sept. 19) implies persistently elevated prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 was at 7,629 on 14 September 2026 (Trading Economics), already close to the threshold. On 16 September 2026 (FOMC decision day), an open Cassandra forecast sees a close below 7,600 – consistent with moderate sell-the-rumour dynamics before the decision. The 25 bp Fed-funds hike to 3.75–4.00% was priced in at 91% per Kalshi (KXFEDDECISION-26SEP) and Yahoo Finance as of 16 September 2026. Historically US equity markets recover 0.3–0.6% on average the day after a fully anticipated rate hike ('buy the news'). VIX stood at 17.10–17.68 on 15–16 September; a post-decision VIX decline supports recovery above 7,600. No Polymarket market for an exact S&P level on 17 September available.