Federal Reserve FOMC raises the Fed Funds Rate by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on 16 September 2026 (confirmed by Fed press release or Bloomberg by 16 September 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 7. September 2026
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Predicted for 16. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Kalshi (7 Sep 2026) prices a 56% probability of a 25bp hike to 3.75–4.00%. CPI inflation stands at 3.4% YoY — above the 2% target. Elevated energy costs from Middle East tensions (Brent: $97.39 on 7 Sep) support the hawkish argument. The July 29 FOMC vote (9:3 to hold) already showed a dissenting minority. Fed Chair Warsh has publicly signalled hawkish readiness. Calibration anchored directly to Kalshi market probability.
Data basis for this prediction
- Kalshi-Marktwahrscheinlichkeit 56 % für FOMC-Zinsschritt Sep. 2026 (kalshi.com, Stand 7. Sep. 2026)
- Fed Funds Rate aktuell 3,50–3,75 %, FOMC-Abstimmung 29. Jul. 2026: 9:3 für Pause (Advisor Perspectives)
- CPI YoY Aug. 2026: 3,4 % (BLS); Brent Rohöl 7. Sep. 2026: 97,39 USD (Trading Economics)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.