Federal Reserve (FOMC) holds the US policy rate unchanged at the 3.50–3.75% target range at the September meeting (15/16 September 2026, confirmed by FOMC press release or Bloomberg)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 25. August 2026
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Predicted for 16. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
CME FedWatch on 20 August 2026 showed 68.4% hold probability; Kalshi put the hold chance at 65%. Background: July FOMC held at 3.50–3.75% (3 dissenters favouring a hike). The weak July 2026 US jobs report (net employment decline) materially reduced September-hike expectations. Iran-conflict energy price shocks and above-target core inflation keep a hike theoretically alive. Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote (28 Aug) may shift near-term pricing. Note: this forecast does NOT contradict the open platform prediction 'Fed raises rates at least once by 31.12.2026' — a November or December hike remains possible.
Data basis for this prediction
- CME FedWatch: 68,4 % Hold-Wahrscheinlichkeit September-FOMC – Stand 20.08.2026 (macromicro.me / cmegroup.com)
- Kalshi: 65 % Hold-Wahrscheinlichkeit September 2026 (centralbank.watch, Stand 25.08.2026)
- CNBC: 'Odds the Fed will hike in September tumble following big July jobs miss' (07.08.2026)
- Chase/JP Morgan Wealth: 'September 2026 rate hike now expected amid energy shocks' – kontrastierender Hike-Treiber (chase.com, August 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] FOMC hat beim September-Treffen 2026 den Zins NICHT unverändert gelassen, sondern um 25 Bps angehoben. Quelle: CNBC, 16.09.2026.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.