Fed cuts policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.25–3.50% at the 17 September 2026 FOMC meeting (confirmed by Federal Reserve press release)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 27. July 2026
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Predicted for 17. September 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Polymarket shows 51% probability for any rate change at the September FOMC meeting. Current rate: 3.50–3.75% (effective 3.62%, as of July 9, 2026). Strong argument for a cut: US June jobs report extremely weak (+57,000 NFP vs. +115,000 consensus, labor force participation –0.3pp to 61.5%, household employment –507,000). Core PCE June 2026 expected below 3.40% per open prediction. Counterargument: Fed paused on July 29; a second pause remains possible. Own estimate, supported by weak labor market data: ~42% cut / ~9% hike / ~49% hold — consistent with Polymarket's 51% change probability (42% + 9% ≈ 51%). Polymarket sees 51% for any change.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Fed Decision September 2026: 51 % für irgendeine Änderung (polymarket.com, Juli 2026)
- FRED/CNBC: Fed Funds Rate effektiv 3,62 % (Stand 9. Juli 2026)
- BLS: US June 2026 Jobs Report +57.000 NFP, Partizipation 61,5 % (bls.gov, 2. Juli 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
FTSE 100 closing price 24 July 2026: 10,738 points (+17.72% YoY; 52-week range: 9,028–10,935). Reaching 10,800 requires +0.58% over 4 trading days (28–31 July). Drivers: strong UK earnings cycle (AstraZeneca H1 29 Jul, Shell Q2 30 Jul expected beat, BP Q2 4 Aug); BoE rate pause at 3.75% (30 July, already predicted); oil/commodity stocks (~20% FTSE) could benefit from Iran conflict premium (Brent currently ~$96.78). Headwind: global risk-off sentiment from US-Iran war.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
ISM Manufacturing PMI was 53.3 in June 2026 – well into expansion territory. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI July 2026 preliminary (24 July) came in at 53.8 (slightly below the 54.3 expectation, but clearly expansionary). US nearshoring trends, stable domestic demand, and infrastructure spending support manufacturing. Ten consecutive months above 50. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI July 2026 is already in open predictions (≥50, 5 August). This market is not in open predictions.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Nikkei 225 closing price July 24, 2026: 64,611 points (–2.73% from prior session). A further +0.6% is needed to close above 65,000 on July 31. Supportive: BoJ expected to hold at 1.00% on July 31 (open prediction) — a surprise hike would strengthen the yen and weigh on exporters. Also supportive: strong US Q2 earnings season (Meta, Alphabet, Amazon). July 2026 monthly range: 62,500–66,700+. The 65,000 threshold is derived from current data and distinct from the existing open prediction (>64,000).