📈 Economy
· Next Week
ECB raises deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 (confirmed by ECB press release by September 10, 2026)
Probability
62%
A Reuters survey of 65 economists on September 3, 2026 shows consensus expectation for a further 25bp hike to 2.50% at the September 10 Governing Council meeting — FXStreet headlines 'Economists agree: ECB to hike on September 10'. The ECB raised rates to 2.25% in June 2026 (first hike in three years, driven by energy price spike/persistent inflation), paused in July. July minutes signalled: 'another hike likely unless inflation outlook improves significantly.' No Polymarket market for Sep 10 decision found; Reuters consensus is primary anchor.
Data basis for this prediction
- FXStreet: 'Economists agree: ECB to hike rates on September 10 – Reuters poll' — 65/65 Ökonomen für 25-Bp-Hike auf 2,50 % (3. Sep 2026)
- EZB-Pressemitteilung: Einlagenzins auf 2,25 % angehoben, Wirkung ab 17. Jun 2026 (ecb.europa.eu)
- EZB Juli-Protokoll-Zusammenfassung: 'weitere Anhebung wahrscheinlich' — September-Entscheidung offen
- Morningstar: 'Will the ECB Raise Interest Rates Again in 2026?' — Mehrheitsszenario: Sep-Hike auf 2,50 %
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] EZB erhöhte den Einlagenzins am 10. September 2026 um 25 Basispunkte auf 2,50% — bestätigt durch offizielle EZB-Pressemitteilung (Inflation im Euroraum im August bei 3,3%).