ECB leaves deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% at the July 23, 2026 Governing Council meeting
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 19. July 2026
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Predicted for 23. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The ECB raised its deposit rate from 2.00% to 2.25% on June 11, 2026 — its first hike since 2012. A second move just six weeks later at the July 23 meeting is extremely unlikely by ECB communication norms: rate decisions follow data-dependent cycles with at least two-month spacing, and President Lagarde has explicitly emphasized gradualism. An existing open Cassandra prediction already positions the next hike to 2.50% at ca. September 10, 2026 — consistent with a July pause. Euribor 3M futures price a July pause at ~90%. No explicit Polymarket market for the July decision.
Data basis for this prediction
- EZB-Ratsentscheid 11.06.2026: Einlagensatz auf 2,25 % angehoben (ECB Pressemitteilung ecb.mp260611)
- Euribor-3M-Futures: Pausenwahrscheinlichkeit Juli ca. 90 % (Reuters / ICE, 18.07.2026)
- Offene Cassandra-Vorhersage: EZB nächste Anhebung auf 2,50 % ca. 10. September 2026
- EZB-Sitzung 23. Juli 2026 als 'Tag des EZB-Entscheids' bestätigt (Brent-Vorhersage 23. Juli)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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