📈 Economy · Next Week

Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) beats the Q2-2026 adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus of approx. $3.76 per share (July 31, 2026, pre-market)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 23. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

72%

WTI crude oil stood at $88.17/bbl on July 23, 2026, strongly supporting Exxon's upstream margins. Analyst consensus: ~$3.76/share (range: $3.71–$3.88). Geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf (Polymarket: active Hormuz shipping market) and OPEC+ discipline stabilise price levels. Large-cap energy companies historically beat consensus more often in high-price environments. No Polymarket market for this specific event.

Data basis for this prediction

Barchart.com: XOM Q2 2026 Earnings Preview (Juli 2026)
The Stock Observer: Exxon Q2 2026 Konsens ~3,76 USD/Aktie (22. Juli 2026)
WTI Crude: 88,17 USD/Barrel (23. Juli 2026, FX Daily Report)
Polymarket: Straße von Hormuz-Schifffahrt – Geopolitischer Risikomarkt aktiv (Juli 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

ExxonMobil meldete für Q2 2026 (31. Juli 2026) einen bereinigten Non-GAAP-EPS von 3,52 USD – deutlich unter dem in der Vorhersage angesetzten Konsens von ca. 3,76 USD. Auch gegenüber dem zum Berichtszeitpunkt aktuellen Analystenkonsens (ca. 3,60–3,68 USD je nach Quelle) verfehlte Exxon das Ziel. Hauptgründe für die Verfehlung: geplante Wartungsarbeiten in Raffinerien sowie erhöhte Abschreibungen infolge jüngerer Investitionen (Quellen: Alphastreet, Yahoo Finance/Zacks, qz.com, rte.ie). Die in der Vorhersage angeführten Preisstützungsfaktoren (Ölpreis, OPEC+-Disziplin) reichten nicht aus, um die gestiegenen Betriebskosten zu kompensieren.

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