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📈 Economy · Next Month

Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) beats Q2-2026 adjusted EPS consensus of approx. $2.35 per share (July 31, 2026, before market open)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 21. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle
Probability
73%

ExxonMobil reports Q2 on July 31 before market open. Brent at ~$89/barrel on July 21; Q2 quarterly average (April–June 2026) estimated at $84–88/barrel — clearly above Q2 2025 (~$81/barrel). Pioneer Energy integration delivering cost savings; Permian output >1.6M bbl/day. Historical Exxon EPS beat rate: >78% in last 8 quarters (Trading Economics). Consensus approx. $2.35 (estimated). No Polymarket market. Counter-risks: refining margins slightly compressed, chemicals segment gradually recovering.

Data basis for this prediction
  • Exxon Q2-2026-Ergebnisdatum: 31. Juli 2026 (SEC 8-K / Exxon Investor Relations, Juli 2026)
  • Brent Spot: ~$89,23/Barrel am 21. Juli 2026 (Trading Economics / Forbes Advisor, 21.07.2026)
  • Permian-Produktion >1,6 Mio. bbl/Tag (ExxonMobil Q1 2026 Investor Relations)
  • Exxon historische EPS-Beat-Rate >78 % (Trading Economics EPS-Daten, Juli 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss
ExxonMobil meldete am 31. Juli 2026 (vor Marktöffnung) ein bereinigtes Q2-EPS von 3,52 USD (bereinigte Gewinne: 14,7 Mrd. USD). Die Vorhersage basierte auf einem vollständig falschen Konsens-EPS von ~2,35 USD — der tatsächliche Analystenkonsens lag bei ~3,68 USD (Zacks/Alphastreet). Gegenüber diesem realen Konsens verfehlte ExxonMobil das bereinigte EPS um ca. 4,3 % (3,52 USD vs. 3,68 USD). Ursachen für das Miss: höhere Wartungskosten (scheduled maintenance), gestiegene Abschreibungen aus Neuinvestitionen sowie Produktionsunterbrechungen im Nahen Osten. Umsatzseitig wurde der Konsens mit ~116 Mrd. USD deutlich übertroffen. Die Vorhersage war damit in ihrem Kern falsch: ExxonMobil hat den tatsächlichen EPS-Konsens nicht übertroffen, sondern verfehlt. Quellen: [FMP](https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/market-news/exxon-mobil-xom-q2-2026-profit-surges-eps-misses-estimates), [Yahoo Finance / Zacks](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/xom-q2-earnings-miss-estimates-145200939.html), [Alphastreet Preview](https://news.alphastreet.com/exxon-mobil-xom-q2-2026-preview-eps-est-3-68-reports-july-31/), [ExxonMobil IR](https://investor.exxonmobil.com/company-information/press-releases/detail/1208/exxonmobil-announces-second-quarter-2026-results)
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S&P 500 (SPX) closes above 7,500 on Friday, 13 November 2026 (confirmed via NYSE closing price or Bloomberg by 14 November 2026, 10:00 ET)

The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.

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Next Week · Predicted for 13. Nov 2026
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US Consumer Price Index (headline CPI) for October 2026 exceeds 3.7 percent year-on-year — BLS release November 10, 2026, 8:30 AM ET (confirmed by BLS or Bloomberg by November 10, 2026, 10:00 AM ET)

The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.

65%
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Gold (XAU/USD Spot) closes above $4,400 per ounce on 31 December 2026 (confirmed by Bloomberg or Kitco by 1 January 2027)

Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.

32%
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