📈 Economy · Next Month

Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) beats the adjusted EPS consensus of approx. USD 3.60 per share in Q2 2026 earnings (30 July 2026, before market open)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 20. July 2026 · Predicted for 30. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

63%

Brent crude rose to USD 88.10/barrel on 17 July (+4.59%) due to escalating Iran-US military conflict. Q2 average price likely ~USD 85–87/barrel, well above Q2 2025 (~74 USD). This drives material XOM upstream outperformance vs. consensus. Pioneer merger synergies (~USD 1.5B/yr) and firm refining margins add further support. Adjusted EPS consensus is ~USD 3.60–3.76; in strongly rising oil price phases, XOM historically beats consensus in ~65–70% of cases. No specific Polymarket market for XOM earnings.

Data basis for this prediction

Trading Economics / ICE: Brent Rohöl 88,10 USD/Barrel am 17. Juli 2026, +4,59 % auf Tagessicht
Fortune.com: Ölpreis 10. Juli 2026 (~82 USD/Barrel) – Q2-Durchschnitt ca. 85–87 USD
MarketBeat.com: XOM Q2 2026 EPS-Konsens ca. 3,60–3,76 USD (Analyst Consensus, Stand Juli 2026)
Nasdaq.com: XOM Earnings Date 30. Juli 2026, vor Marktöffnung

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

ExxonMobil meldete für Q2 2026 einen bereinigten EPS von 3,52 USD – und verfehlte damit den Konsensus (Zacks: 3,68 USD; Vorhersage: ~3,60 USD) um ca. 4,3 %. Die Vorhersage, dass XOM den Konsens übertreffen würde, trat nicht ein. Als Hauptursachen nannten Analysten höhere Kosten durch geplante Wartungsarbeiten sowie gestiegene Abschreibungen durch jüngste Investitionen. Auf der Umsatzseite gab es dagegen eine klare Übertreffung (116 Mrd. USD vs. Konsens 95,8 Mrd. USD). Quellen: financialmodelingprep.com ('EPS Misses Estimates'), Yahoo Finance ('XOM Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates Despite Record Production Growth'), BusinessWire (offizielle Pressemitteilung vom 30./31.07.2026).

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