📈 Economy · Next Week

EUR/USD (Spot) closes above 1.1450 on July 31, 2026

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 23. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. July 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

50%

EUR/USD trades at 1.1418 on July 23, near its yearly high. The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.25% in 2026 while the Fed cut to 3.50–3.75%; the remaining rate differential is structurally less Euro-bearish than in 2024. Reaching 1.1450 requires +0.28%. Headwind: a strong US earnings week (Meta, Apple, Amazon all from July 29) and potentially strong US GDP Q2 (July 30) could support the dollar. No specific Polymarket market found for this rate and date.

Data basis for this prediction

EUR/USD Kurs 23. Juli 2026: 1,1418 (MTFX Group)
EZB-Einlagensatz Juli 2026: 2,25 % (ECB Watch/equalsmoney.com, 23.07.2026)
Fed Funds Rate 3,50–3,75 % (CNBC/FRED, Stand 9. Juli 2026)
US-BIP Q2 2026 Advance Estimate: erwartet 30. Juli 2026 (BEA)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

Der offizielle EZB-Referenzkurs für EUR/USD am 31. Juli 2026 lag bei 1,1485 und damit 35 Pips über der Zielschwelle von 1,1450. Der befürchtete Dollar-Rückenwind durch US-Big-Tech-Earnings (Meta, Apple, Amazon) und das US-BIP Q2 reichte nicht aus, um den EUR unter 1,1450 zu drücken. Quelle: ECB eurofxref-hist-90d.xml (direkt abgerufen).

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