📈 Economy · Next Year

EUR/USD (spot) closes above 1.1500 on December 31, 2026

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 21. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. December 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

45%

EUR/USD trades at 1.1409–1.1413 on July 21, 2026. Drivers for further dollar weakness: (1) Fed rate-cut path expected from H2 2026 (market-implied: 2 cuts by year-end as inflation falls), (2) ECB rate hike to 2.50% in September 2026 (Polymarket ~70%), (3) Continuing Resolution instead of FY2027 budget raises US fiscal risk, (4) reduction of Iran risk premium post-ceasefire. Headwind: US PCE at 4.10% substantially limits Fed room. IMF/Bloomberg Consensus median forecast: 1.12–1.15 by year-end. No specific EUR/USD Polymarket market; calibration 45%.

Data basis for this prediction

EUR/USD aktuell 1,1409–1,1413 (MTFX Group, 21. Juli 2026)
Polymarket EZB-Zinsschritt September 2026: ~70 % Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket.com, Juli 2026)
US PCE-Inflation Mai 2026: 4,10 % YoY (BEA / Trading Economics, Juli 2026)
IMF World Economic Outlook Frühjahr 2026: EUR/USD-Medianprognose 1,12–1,15 bis Jahresende

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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