📈 Economy
· Next Month
Eurozone HICP flash estimate for July 2026 at least 2.5% year-on-year (Eurostat release ~July 31, 2026)
Probability
57%
TTF Natural Gas rose +29% in July 2026 to ~58.91 EUR/MWh; WTI crude surged +10% in one week (to $82.15), Brent to $85.95 — driven by Hormuz crisis and Qatar LNG halt. These energy price shocks will push the energy component of the Eurozone HICP for July sharply higher. If June HICP was ~2.2-2.3% YoY, an energy component expansion of +0.3-0.5 percentage points would lift July to ≥2.5%. The ECB may thus extend its rate pause, supporting the existing forecast 'ECB holds at 2.25% on July 23'. No Polymarket value; own estimate 57%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Trading Economics: TTF Erdgas +29% Monatszuwachs, Stand 58,91 EUR/MWh (17. Juli 2026)
- Trading Economics: WTI Rohöl 82,15 USD (+4,05% am 17. Juli, +10% Wochenzuwachs)
- Trading Economics: Brent Rohöl 85,95 USD (+2,04% am 17. Juli 2026)
- Eurostat: HICP Schnellschätzung Veröffentlichungskalender – Juli-Daten ca. 31. Juli 2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Eurostat veröffentlichte die HICP-Schnellschätzung für Juli 2026 am 31. Juli 2026: Die Jahresinflation im Euroraum betrug 2,9 % – deutlich über der Schwelle von 2,5 %. Der Treiber war exakt wie vorhergesagt die Energiekomponente, die von 8,5 % (Juni) auf 10,0 % im Juli sprang. Quelle: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-31072026-ap sowie https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/07/31/eurozone-inflation-hits-29-which-countries-saw-the-biggest-increases