📈 Economy · Next Month

European Central Bank (ECB) raises deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% on 29 October 2026

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 18. September 2026 · Predicted for 29. October 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

68%

ECB raised the deposit rate to 2.50% on 10 September 2026. An existing open prediction on this platform expects a further hike to 3.00% on 17 December 2026 (+25bp). Arithmetically, a step to 2.75% at the October meeting (28–29 Oct) is the consistent intermediate path. Eurozone CPI August 2026 was 3.2% (energy-driven by Iran conflict), keeping the ECB on a tightening path. Bloomberg consensus (orbitremit, Sep 2026): gradual 25bp-per-meeting pace.

Data basis for this prediction

EZB Einlagenzins: 2,50 % (angehoben 10.09.2026, ECB.europa.eu / orbitremit-Blog)
Eurozone VPI August 2026: 3,2 % YoY (Eurostat, Sep 2026)
EZB-Ratstreffen Oktober 2026: 28.–29. Oktober (ECB-Kalender, smartcalendars.ai)
Offene Plattform-Prognose: EZB auf 3,00 % am 17.12.2026 — impliziert Zwischenschritt im Oktober

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

Related Predictions

📈 Economy ✦ AI

German 10-year Bund yield (DE10Y) closes at or above 3.45% on September 30, 2026 (confirmed by Bloomberg or Investing.com by September 30, 2026)

The German 10-year Bund yield stands at 3.51% on September 17, 2026 (+25 bp month-on-month, +79 bp year-on-year). The ECB deposit rate is currently 2.50%, with an active Cassandra prediction pointing to a hike to 2.75% on October 29, 2026. Eurozone inflation was 3.2% in August 2026 (Eurostat). This combination — ongoing ECB rate hike cycle, elevated inflation, rising yield trend through September — argues that the 10Y yield will not fall more than 6 basis points to below 3.45% by month-end. No direct Polymarket market; no existing Cassandra prediction on this instrument. Own calibration: 65%.

65%

Next Month · Predicted for 30. Sep 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

Silver (XAG/USD Spot) closes above USD 65.00 per troy ounce on September 19, 2026

Silver trades at USD 65.36 on September 18, 2026 (intraday range 62.85–66.15), after rising 2.94% to 65.52 on September 17 driven by the FOMC rate hike to 3.75–4.00%. Today's confirmed BoJ rate hike to 1.25% further weakens the USD, supporting precious metals. A close above 65.00 means silver stays within its range established since September 17. No direct Polymarket market for XAG/USD available. Own calibration: 72%.

72%

Tomorrow · Predicted for 19. Sep 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

Bitcoin (BTC/USD spot) closes above USD 74,000 per unit on 22 September 2026

Bitcoin was trading at ~USD 76,357 on 17 September 2026 (TradingView/Binance). The 74,000 threshold sits ~3.1% below current price. Polymarket BTC September markets showed ~81% weight for the 78,000–80,000 range as of 16 Sep. Headwinds: BoJ rate hike to 1.25% (18 Sep) may trigger brief risk-off. The ~3% buffer should absorb moderate corrections.

71%

Next Week · Predicted for 22. Sep 2026