📈 Economy · Next Month

European Central Bank (ECB) raises deposit rate to 2.50% at the 10 September 2026 Governing Council meeting (confirmed by ECB press release)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 25. July 2026 · Predicted for 10. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

76%

Centralbank.watch implies 93% market probability for an ECB hike to 2.50% in September 2026; CNBC sources cite 70%. The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.25% in June 2026 for the first time in three years and kept it unchanged on 24 July 2026. Drivers: oil price shock from Iran war, Lagarde's inflation warnings, markets pricing two more hikes by end-2026. Next ECB meeting after September: 29 October 2026.

Data basis for this prediction

Centralbank.watch: 93% Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für EZB-Erhöhung auf 2,50% im September 2026 (Stand 24.07.2026)
CNBC: 'Traders see September rate hike as ECB mulls energy price spike' (23.07.2026)
ECB-Pressemitteilung: Einlagenzins auf 2,25% seit 17.06.2026 (erste Erhöhung seit 3 Jahren)
CNBC: 'Renewed Hormuz hostilities drive ECB rates rethink' (15.07.2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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