Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) beats Q2 2026 adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus and raises full-year FY2026 guidance (August 5, 2026, before market open; confirmed by Lilly press release)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 27. July 2026
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Predicted for 5. August 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Eli Lilly reports on August 5, 2026 before market open. The company is the global market leader in the GLP-1 segment (Mounjaro/Zepbound). Mounjaro quarterly revenues are growing continuously (~80% YoY); Lilly's new manufacturing facilities in North Carolina and Indiana have significantly reduced supply constraints since H2 2025. Lilly has beaten EPS consensus for five consecutive quarters and raised annual guidance four times. The Zepbound approval portfolio (obesity, heart failure) continues to expand. No Polymarket market; own estimate 79% based on structurally strong GLP-1 growth trajectory.
Data basis for this prediction
- Eli Lilly Q2 2026 Earnings Date: 5. August 2026 (TipRanks Earnings Calendar, 27.07.2026)
- Lilly Mounjaro: ~80 % YoY-Wachstum, Kapazitätsausbau NC/Indiana abgeschlossen (Lilly IR Referenz)
- Lilly: 5 aufeinanderfolgende EPS-Beats, 4× Jahresprognoseerhöhung (Analystenreferenz)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Beide Bedingungen der Vorhersage sind eingetreten. (1) EPS-Beat: Eli Lilly meldete am 5. August 2026 vor Börseneröffnung einen Non-GAAP-EPS von $8,38 gegenüber dem Konsens von $6,58 (+27,3 % Übertreffen). (2) Jahresprognose angehoben: Die FY2026-Revenue-Guidance wurde auf $85,0–87,0 Mrd. erhöht (zuvor $82–85 Mrd.), die Non-GAAP-EPS-Guidance auf $35,50–36,50 (+$2,78 Mittelpunkt). Der Umsatz stieg um 48 % auf $23,0 Mrd., getrieben von Mounjaro und Zepbound. Quellen: Lilly-Pressemitteilung via PR Newswire (https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/lilly-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-raises-full-year-guidance-and-highlights-continued-growth-and-pipeline-progress-302843165.html) und SEC Form 8-K (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000005947826000077/q226lillysalesandearningsp.htm).
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.