Democratic Party (USA) wins the Senate majority in the 2026 US midterm elections (November 3, 2026) and holds the Senate Majority Leader position (at least 51 seats)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 17. July 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority. Democrats need a net +4 seats to flip control. The 2026 election covers Class 3 senators, including several competitive swing-state seats. Historically the president's party loses an average of 5 Senate seats at midterms; Trump's second term with unpopular tariff policy and social spending cuts may energise voters. No specific Polymarket Senate-control 2026 market available (as of July 17, 2026). Estimate based on historical regression. Distinct from the open prediction 'Democrats win House majority'.
Data basis for this prediction
- US-Senat aktuell: Republikaner 53, Demokraten 47 (US Senate.gov, Juli 2026)
- Historisches Midterm-Muster: Präsidentenpartei verliert Ø 5 Senatssitze (FiveThirtyEight Historik)
- Polymarket: kein spezifisches 2026-Senats-Mehrheits-Markt gelistet (Stand 17. Juli 2026)
- Reuters / Politico: Trumps Zollpolitik und Haushaltskürzungen als Mobilisierungsfaktor (2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.