📈 Economy
· Next Week
DAX (XETRA) closes below 24,500 points on July 22, 2026
Probability
38%
DAX closed at 24,831 on July 17, already –4.1% below the intra-month high of 25,900 (July 6). Drivers: ongoing US-Iran military operations (6th night of US strikes + Iranian retaliation), global oil shock (+10% in a week to ~$81.78 WTI), revived inflation fears and Fed rate hike expectations. Additional headwind from Japan's historic Upper House election defeat (LDP loses majority for first time since 1955). Falling to 24,500 requires a further ~1.3% decline. No existing DAX daily-level open prediction for July 22 on the platform.
Data basis for this prediction
- DAX XETRA Schlusskurs 17.07.2026: 24.830,98 Punkte (Yahoo Finance / tradingeconomics.com)
- DAX Intramonats-Hoch 06.07.2026: 25.900,10 (Yahoo Finance, 17.07.2026)
- CNBC: WTI Crude Aug 26 +4,47% bei 81,78 USD, Iran war fans inflation fears (17.07.2026)
- CSIS: Japan Upper House election — prolonged instability (20.07.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
Der DAX (XETRA) schloss am 22. Juli 2026 bei 25.155 Punkten (+0,58% / +144 Punkte) – deutlich über der Schwelle von 24.500 Punkten. Statt des erwarteten Rückgangs legte der Index zu. Treiber waren überzeugende Quartalszahlen von DAX-Unternehmen (u. a. Airbus und GEA), die die geopolitischen Belastungsfaktoren (US-Iran-Spannungen, Ölpreisschock) überkompensierten. Die Vorhersage verfehlte das Ziel um rund 655 Punkte (~2,7%). Quellen: Investing.com ('Germany stocks higher at close of trade; DAX up 0.65%'), aktiencheck.de (DAX-Daytrading 22. Juli 2026), daxfutures.org ('DAX Eases After Hitting 2-Week High').