DAX (XETRA: ^GDAXI) closes above 25,500 points on July 31, 2026 (confirmed by Xetra closing price or Bloomberg)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 25. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. July 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
The DAX closed at 25,099 on July 24, 2026 (+1.36%), recovering from a monthly low. To close above 25,500 by Friday requires a further ~1.6% gain. Positive drivers: US earnings season with Meta, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft this week; stable ECB rate path. Headwinds: US tariffs (Section 301, 12.5%), weak German domestic growth, VW restructuring (50,000 job cuts announced). No prediction market; estimate: 42%.
Data basis for this prediction
- DAX Schlussstand 24.07.2026: 25.099 Punkte (+336 Pkt / +1,36 %) (TradingEconomics)
- VW Group H1 2026: Adj. EBIT-Marge 4,3 %, Betriebsgewinn €5,9 Mrd. (Xinhua, 24.07.2026)
- US Section-301-Zölle China 12,5 % aktiv (Reuters, Juli 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Der DAX schloss am 31. Juli 2026 (Freitag) laut Xetra-Handel bei 25.629,24 Punkten (+0,07 % gegenüber Vortag) und lag damit klar über der Schwelle von 25.500 Punkten. Das entspricht einem Monatsgewinn von +2,53 % (+633 Punkte). Das Intraday-Hoch des Tages erreichte 25.900,10 Punkte (neues Rekordhoch), das Allzeithoch wurde aber knapp verfehlt. Die positive US-Berichtssaison (Meta, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft) sowie ein stabiler EZB-Zinspfad lieferten die nötigen Aufwärtsimpulse, um das Ziel von 25.500 Punkten zu übertreffen. Quellen: wallstreet-online.de (31.07.2026), ariva.de (31.07.2026), boerse-duesseldorf.de (DAX im Juli 2026).
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 closed at 7,636.36 on 9 September 2026. Falling below 7,450 by month-end would require a 2.4% decline. Headwinds: Fed rate hike of 25bp on 16 September (CentralBank.Watch: 59% probability), August PPI above expectations (+5.4% YoY), Iran-Gulf risk premium. Stabilizing factors: hike largely priced in (Polymarket: 93% for zero 2026 cuts), Q2 earnings solid, no recession signals. Historically, a single 25bp September hike rarely causes a monthly decline above 2.5%.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.