DAX (XETRA: ^GDAXI) closes above 25,400 points on 29 July 2026
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 23. July 2026
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Predicted for 29. July 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
The DAX closed at 25,155.41 on 23 July 2026. Two major positive catalysts line up for 29 July: (1) Fed rate hold decision (separate open prediction: hold at 3.50–3.75%) supporting equities; (2) Microsoft Q4-FY2026 and Meta Q2-2026 reporting after close with positive guidance expected. A ~1.0% gain to 25,400 is feasible on a positive macro day. No Polymarket market available for DAX on 29 July.
Data basis for this prediction
- DAX Schlussstand 23. Jul 2026: 25.155,41 Punkte (XETRA/Bloomberg)
- S&P 500 Schlussstand 23. Jul 2026: 7.498,96 (Bloomberg)
- Microsoft Q4-FY2026 Earnings-Termin: 29. Jul 2026 nach Börsenschluss (Microsoft IR)
- Meta Q2-2026 Earnings-Termin: 29. Jul 2026 nach Börsenschluss (Meta IR)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Der DAX schloss am 29. Juli 2026 bei ca. 25.489,73 Punkten und damit deutlich über der Schwelle von 25.400 Punkten. Die Fed hielt ihren Leitzins wie vorhergesagt bei 3,50–3,75 % (Abstimmung 9:3 für Hold, Quelle: CNBC/Fed). Wallstreet-online berichtete für den 29. Juli von einem stabilen, aber engen Handelsbereich (~25.300–25.560), was mit dem finalen Schlusskurs konsistent ist. Der Anstieg um ~334 Punkte gegenüber dem Ausgangskurs vom 23. Juli (+1,3 %) lag über der prognostizierten ~1,0%-Marke. Quellen: wallstreet-online.de (29.07.2026), boerse-duesseldorf.de (DAX im Juli 2026), CNBC Fed rate decision 29.07.2026.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 closed at 7,636.36 on 9 September 2026. Falling below 7,450 by month-end would require a 2.4% decline. Headwinds: Fed rate hike of 25bp on 16 September (CentralBank.Watch: 59% probability), August PPI above expectations (+5.4% YoY), Iran-Gulf risk premium. Stabilizing factors: hike largely priced in (Polymarket: 93% for zero 2026 cuts), Q2 earnings solid, no recession signals. Historically, a single 25bp September hike rarely causes a monthly decline above 2.5%.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.