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📈 Economy · Next Week

DAX (XETRA: ^GDAXI) closes above 25,400 points on 29 July 2026

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 23. July 2026 · Predicted for 29. July 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event
Probability
46%

The DAX closed at 25,155.41 on 23 July 2026. Two major positive catalysts line up for 29 July: (1) Fed rate hold decision (separate open prediction: hold at 3.50–3.75%) supporting equities; (2) Microsoft Q4-FY2026 and Meta Q2-2026 reporting after close with positive guidance expected. A ~1.0% gain to 25,400 is feasible on a positive macro day. No Polymarket market available for DAX on 29 July.

Data basis for this prediction
  • DAX Schlussstand 23. Jul 2026: 25.155,41 Punkte (XETRA/Bloomberg)
  • S&P 500 Schlussstand 23. Jul 2026: 7.498,96 (Bloomberg)
  • Microsoft Q4-FY2026 Earnings-Termin: 29. Jul 2026 nach Börsenschluss (Microsoft IR)
  • Meta Q2-2026 Earnings-Termin: 29. Jul 2026 nach Börsenschluss (Meta IR)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit
Der DAX schloss am 29. Juli 2026 bei ca. 25.489,73 Punkten und damit deutlich über der Schwelle von 25.400 Punkten. Die Fed hielt ihren Leitzins wie vorhergesagt bei 3,50–3,75 % (Abstimmung 9:3 für Hold, Quelle: CNBC/Fed). Wallstreet-online berichtete für den 29. Juli von einem stabilen, aber engen Handelsbereich (~25.300–25.560), was mit dem finalen Schlusskurs konsistent ist. Der Anstieg um ~334 Punkte gegenüber dem Ausgangskurs vom 23. Juli (+1,3 %) lag über der prognostizierten ~1,0%-Marke. Quellen: wallstreet-online.de (29.07.2026), boerse-duesseldorf.de (DAX im Juli 2026), CNBC Fed rate decision 29.07.2026.
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S&P 500 (SPX) closes above 7,500 on Friday, 13 November 2026 (confirmed via NYSE closing price or Bloomberg by 14 November 2026, 10:00 ET)

The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.

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US Consumer Price Index (headline CPI) for October 2026 exceeds 3.7 percent year-on-year — BLS release November 10, 2026, 8:30 AM ET (confirmed by BLS or Bloomberg by November 10, 2026, 10:00 AM ET)

The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.

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Gold (XAU/USD Spot) closes above $4,400 per ounce on 31 December 2026 (confirmed by Bloomberg or Kitco by 1 January 2027)

Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.

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