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📈 Economy · Next Week

DAX 40 (XETR: ^GDAXI) closes above 25,200 points on July 31, 2026

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 27. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. July 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern
Probability
57%

DAX closed at 25,099 on July 24, 2026, driven by a SAP earnings beat (+1.36%). Several positive factors support the remaining week through July 31: (1) sharp Brent crude correction on July 27 (−7% to ~$90.90) after US pause on Iran strikes — reduces industrial costs and supports consumer/transport stocks; (2) strong US Big Tech quarterly results (Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft on July 29); (3) expected Fed rate pause on July 29 supports global risk sentiment. Required gain from DAX 25,099: ~+0.4%. No specific prediction market; estimate ~57%.

Data basis for this prediction
  • BBN Times: 'DAX 40 closes at 25,099 after SAP Earnings Beat' (24. Juli 2026)
  • IG.com: Brent-Rohöl fällt auf ca. 90,90 USD (−7 % am 27. Juli 2026) nach US-Iran-Deeskalation
  • S&P 500 Schlussstand 27. Juli 2026: 7.411,98 (Yahoo Finance)
  • FTSE 100 Schlussstand 27. Juli 2026: ca. 10.766 – 10.802 (proactiveinvestors.com)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit
Der DAX 40 schloss am 31. Juli 2026 bei ca. 25.629 Punkten (laut BBN Times/Facebook: +0,07 % auf 25.629,24; wallstreet-online.de nennt 25.704 Punkte zum Monatsende). Damit lag der Schlusskurs deutlich über der Hürde von 25.200 Punkten (+ca. 2,1 % gegenüber dem Stand vom 24. Juli). Quellen: https://www.facebook.com/bbntimes/posts/germanys-dax-40-index-closed-fridays-session-31-july-2026-up-a-modest-007-at-256/1460328589464512/ und https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/21177881-dax-zielmarke-26-000-punkten-griffweite
Related Predictions
📈 Economy ✦ AI

FOMC October Meeting (October 28/29, 2026): Federal Reserve holds the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.75–4.00% after the September hike

Polymarket gives 64% to a September hike (+25 bps, to 3.75–4.00%; open prediction). Historically the Fed pauses at least once after a hike to process incoming data (back-to-back hikes occurred in 2022–23 but are the exception). CME FedWatch implies ~48% October pause vs. ~52% hike as of Sept 11, 2026. The open year-end prediction (rate ≥4.00–4.25%) is compatible with a November or December hike, making an October pause structurally plausible. August CPI above 3.0% (open prediction) argues for caution; core CPI is trending lower. Close call: October pause slightly more likely than a consecutive second move.

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US Consumer Price Index August 2026 (BLS, September 11, 2026): Headline Inflation (All Items CPI) above 3.0% year-on-year (confirmed by BLS press release by September 11, 2026)

The BLS releases the August 2026 CPI report on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Economist consensus expects headline inflation at +3.4% YoY (identical to July 2026) and +0.4% MoM. An existing Cassandra prediction separately covers the core rate (Core CPI >3.0%, expected: 2.4%). Headline CPI includes energy and food: Brent crude traded at ~$101–106/barrel on September 10, 2026 (+52% YoY), keeping the headline figure well above the 3.0% threshold. Falling below would require a dramatic unexpected drop across all price components. No prediction market with a specific threshold; very high statistical evidence.

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Tomorrow · Predicted for 11. Sep 2026
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S&P 500 (^GSPC) closes above 7,800 points on December 31, 2026 (confirmed by NYSE closing price or Bloomberg by December 31, 2026)

The S&P 500 closed at 7,591 points on September 10, 2026 (–0.59% from previous day). For a year-end close above 7,800 points, a gain of approximately +2.8% over 3.5 months would be needed. Opposing factors: Kalshi (59%) and Polymarket (53%) see a 25bps Fed rate hike on September 16, 2026 as likely – hawkish monetary policy dampens equity markets short-term. Supporting factors: historically positive Q4 seasonal pattern ('Santa Claus Rally'), potential earnings surprises, declining inflation trajectory. No direct Polymarket market for S&P 500 year-end 2026 above 7,800 found; estimate based on macro factors and seasonal data.

55%
Next Year · Predicted for 31. Dec 2026