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Copa Libertadores 2026 QF First Leg: Palmeiras FC defeats LDU Quito (Nubank Parque, São Paulo, September 9, 2026, confirmed by CONMEBOL.com or ESPN by September 9, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 8. September 2026 · Predicted for 9. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

65%

Palmeiras is the clear Copa Libertadores 2026 title favorite at +333 (LDU Quito: +2800). At their home ground Nubank Parque, Palmeiras holds a perfect head-to-head record against LDU (2W in 2 games). Sportytrader estimates Palmeiras' win probability for the first leg at ~49%; implied bookmaker short odds (~1.26 decimal) suggest substantially higher home advantage of ~65–70%. No Polymarket market found for this specific game; own calibration based on outright odds and home record.

Data basis for this prediction

Sportytrader: Palmeiras Siegwahrscheinlichkeit ~49 %, Kurzquote ~1.26 (Stand 8. Sept 2026)
Smart Betting Guide: Copa Libertadores 2026 Outright – Palmeiras +333, LDU Quito +2800 (Sept 2026)
Palmeiras Heimbilanz vs LDU im Nubank Parque: 2 Spiele, 2 Siege (Wikipedia Copa Libertadores 2026 Final Stages)
Yahoo Sports Preview: Palmeiras vs LDU Quito, Libertadores 09/09/2026

Verdict: Hit

Palmeiras besiegte LDU Quito im Hinspiel der Viertelfinale der Copa Libertadores 2026 am 9. September 2026 im Nubank Parque tatsächlich mit 1:0. Das einzige Tor erzielte Agustín Giay in der 26. Minute. Quellen: Brasil247 ('Palmeiras vence LDU de Quito por 1 a 0 na Libertadores'), ogol.com.br ('Palmeiras 1x0 LDU Quito – Crônica da Partida'), VAVEL Brasil (Liveticker, 1-0 zur Halbzeit bestätigt), SouMaisPop (Nachbericht vom 10.09.2026). Die Vorhersage (Palmeiras-Sieg zu Hause) ist klar eingetreten; einziger Vorbehalt ist, dass der Sieg mit 1:0 knapper ausfiel als die Buchmacher-Heimstärke von 65–70 % hätte erwarten lassen.

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