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Copa CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026 Quarterfinal: CR Vasco da Gama (BRA) advances to the semi-finals on aggregate (2nd leg vs. Independiente Santa Fe COL, September 15, 2026, Estádio São Januário, Rio de Janeiro, confirmed by CONMEBOL.com by September 16, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 14. September 2026 · Predicted for 15. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

62%

The first leg on September 8, 2026 in Bogotá (Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín) ended 0-0. Vasco da Gama host the return leg on September 15 at Estádio São Januário (Rio de Janeiro). With a 0-0 aggregate, Vasco enjoy full home advantage: any 1-0 win sends them through, while Santa Fe must win away or prevail via extra time/penalties. Brazilian clubs historically convert CONMEBOL home return legs after first-leg draws at above-average rates; Vasco also rank higher in the Brazilian Série A than Colombian champions Santa Fe. No Polymarket market available; calibration based on home advantage, squad strength, and historical CONMEBOL patterns. Estimated probability: ~62%.

Data basis for this prediction

Copa Sudamericana 2026 QF Hinspiel: Independiente Santa Fe 0:0 Vasco da Gama, 8. September 2026 (ESPN match-ID 401913960, beIN Sports)
Rückspiel-Ansetzung: 15. September 2026, 17:00 Uhr COT, Estádio São Januário, Rio de Janeiro (CONMEBOL / Goal.com, abgerufen 14.9.2026)
Copa Sudamericana 2026 QF-Übersicht – alle vier Paarungen und Termine (Sofascore / Wikipedia, abgerufen 14.9.2026)

Verdict: Miss

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Rückspiel Vasco da Gama – Santa Fe am 15. September 2026 endete 0:0; Gesamtergebnis 0:0. Santa Fe gewann im Elfmeterschießen. Vasco schied aus. (Quellen: CONMEBOL-Matchcenter, Wikipedia-Bracket)

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