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Coco Gauff (USA, seed #4) reaches the US Open 2026 Women's Singles semifinal (by 4 September 2026, confirmed by USTA or WTA)
Probability
40%
Coco Gauff won the 2026 Cincinnati Open and enters as seed #4. Title odds at the draw reveal were +450–+600 (implied ~15–18% win probability; Sabalenka +330 clear favourite). Bookmaker odds imply a semifinal probability of ~35–45%; her path runs through a potential quarterfinal against Mirra Andreeva, with Sabalenka and Rybakina only possible from the SF onwards. We set 40%, slightly above the raw scaling, given Gauff's strong 2026 hard-court form.
Data basis for this prediction
- Yahoo Sports / CBS Sports: Gauff Titelquote +450–+600 (Stand: 29.08.2026)
- DraftKings Network: US Open 2026 Women's Draw – Gauff Seed #4, mögliches QF vs. Andreeva (29.08.2026)
- Sportskeeda: 'US Open 2026 Women's Draw – Biggest winner and loser ft. Coco Gauff' (Aug. 2026)
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Strukturell unmöglich: Das Turnier befindet sich aktuell in Runde 2 (2.–3. September). Laut rallyher.com und Wikipedia sind die Viertelfinale für den 8.–9. September geplant, das Halbfinale für den 10. September, das Women's Final für den 12. September. Gauff kann das Halbfinale nicht bis zum 4. September erreichen – sie schied nicht aus, aber die Runde findet erst am 10. September statt.