📈 Economy · Next Week

China's NBS Manufacturing PMI for July 2026 (released August 1, 2026) reads 50.0 or above (expansion zone) — confirmed by National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 26. July 2026 · Predicted for 1. August 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

62%

China's official PMI rose to 50.3 in June 2026 (third consecutive expansion month, beating expectations of 50.1), driven by AI-related high-tech export demand. Headwind: US Section 301 tariffs of 12.5% on Chinese goods. PMI values rarely drop more than 3 points month-on-month; a drop below 50 from the current 50.3 level is less likely than a continuation in expansion territory. No Polymarket contract for July available.

Data basis for this prediction

TMGM/FocusEconomics: China NBS Manufacturing PMI Juni 2026: 50,3 (über Erwartung 50,1) — 30. Juni 2026
IDNFinancials: 'AI demand lifts China's manufacturing PMI in June' (30. Juni 2026)
X/@chamilravinda: NBS PMI Juni 2026 = 50,3, vorheriger Monat 50,0 (Stand 30. Juni 2026)
US Section-301-Zölle China 12,5 %: aktiver Exportdruck (bestehende offene Prognose Cassandra.news)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

Chinas NBS Manufacturing PMI für Juli 2026 wurde am 31. Juli 2026 veröffentlicht und lag bei 49,2 % — ein Rückgang um 1,1 Prozentpunkte gegenüber Juni (50,3 %) und damit deutlich unterhalb der Expansionsschwelle von 50,0. Quellen: NBS (stats.gov.cn), FXStreet, Mitrade, SMM. Ursachen des Verfehlers: (1) Hoher Basiseffekt aus der vorangegangenen Wachstumsphase, (2) saisonale Produktionsflaute in Teilen der Fertigungsindustrie, (3) schwache Exportaufträge infolge der US-Section-301-Zölle. Die Vorhersage unterschätzte das Rückschlagrisiko: Obwohl ein Einbruch um mehr als 3 Punkte unwahrscheinlich war, reichte ein Minus von 1,1 Punkten aus, um den Index in die Kontraktionszone zu drücken.

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