📈 Economy · Next Week

China NBS Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 (Released September 1) Remains in Contraction Below 50.0

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 23. August 2026 · Predicted for 1. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

62%

China's official NBS Manufacturing PMI for July 2026 came in at 49.2, well below the 50.0 threshold and below consensus (50.1). US tariffs (in force since late July 2026), weak export demand, and summer seasonal headwinds all point to continued contraction in August. Note: the separately predicted Caixin Manufacturing PMI (>51.0) covers a different universe (SMEs vs. large state firms in NBS). The two surveys regularly diverge. No Polymarket quote available.

Data basis for this prediction

TradingEconomics/FXStreet: China NBS Manufacturing PMI Juli 2026 = 49,2 (actual) vs. 50,1 (Konsensus) (31. Jul. 2026)
FXStreet: NBS Manufacturing PMI China – 2026 Kalenderprognose (Aug 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

[Vorzeitig entschieden] China NBS Manufacturing PMI August 2026: 49,8 Punkte – unter 50,0 (Kontraktion). Die Daten wurden de facto am 31. August 2026 veröffentlicht (FXStreet-Zeitstempel 202608310132). Vorhersage: unter 50,0. Quellen: FXStreet, RTTNews.

Related Predictions

📈 Economy ✦ AI

S&P 500 (^GSPC) closes above 7,450 points on 30 September 2026 (confirmed by NYSE closing price or Bloomberg by 30 September 2026)

The S&P 500 closed at 7,636.36 on 9 September 2026. Falling below 7,450 by month-end would require a 2.4% decline. Headwinds: Fed rate hike of 25bp on 16 September (CentralBank.Watch: 59% probability), August PPI above expectations (+5.4% YoY), Iran-Gulf risk premium. Stabilizing factors: hike largely priced in (Polymarket: 93% for zero 2026 cuts), Q2 earnings solid, no recession signals. Historically, a single 25bp September hike rarely causes a monthly decline above 2.5%.

73%

Next Month · Predicted for 30. Sep 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

US Federal Reserve raises the Federal Funds target range by 25 basis points on 16 September 2026 (FOMC decision)

Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.

53%

Next Week · Predicted for 16. Sep 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

DAX 40 (XETRA) closes above 26,000 points on 30 September 2026 (confirmed by XETRA closing price or Bloomberg by 30 September 2026)

The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.

48%

Next Month · Predicted for 30. Sep 2026