Chicago PMI August 2026 drops below 55.0 points (release August 28, 2026, confirmed by MNI/ISM Chicago or Bloomberg)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 24. August 2026
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Predicted for 28. August 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
The Chicago Business Barometer (Chicago PMI) for August 2026 is released on August 28, 2026 at 09:45 ET. In June 2026 the index stood at 56.7 (above the 55.7 consensus). Current leading indicators: Trading Economics data for August suggest a decline ('drops and misses market expectations'). The Chicago PMI is sensitive to auto production (Stellantis/Ford plants in the Chicago area) and Midwest export orders — both segments have shown seasonal weakness since July 2026. Energy and transport cost increases from tariffs are weighing on suppliers. No prediction market quote available for this specific indicator; probability derived from data trend.
Data basis for this prediction
- Chicago PMI Juni 2026: 56,7 Punkte (Advisor Perspectives, 30.06.2026)
- Trading Economics August-Indikator: 'Chicago PMI Drops in August and Misses' (Aug 2026)
- FXStreet Economic Calendar: Release 28.08.2026 09:45 ET
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Chicago PMI August 2026 wurde mit 56,7 Punkten veröffentlicht – deutlich über der Schwelle von 55,0. Quelle: MNI/Investing.com.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 closed at 7,636.36 on 9 September 2026. Falling below 7,450 by month-end would require a 2.4% decline. Headwinds: Fed rate hike of 25bp on 16 September (CentralBank.Watch: 59% probability), August PPI above expectations (+5.4% YoY), Iran-Gulf risk premium. Stabilizing factors: hike largely priced in (Polymarket: 93% for zero 2026 cuts), Q2 earnings solid, no recession signals. Historically, a single 25bp September hike rarely causes a monthly decline above 2.5%.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.